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Two counties flipped from red to blue: Erie, in Pennsylvania's northwestern corner, and Northampton, in eastern Pennsylvania. Biden didn't flip any counties in Georgia. In Maine, two of the four electoral votes are awarded to the winner of the statewide popular vote and one electoral vote is awarded to the winner in each of the state's two congressional districts. And West Virginia is losing. I think it's the state to watch. [5] However, at that time, a maker of widely-sold maps accompanied them with blue pencils in order to mark Confederate force movements, while red was for the union.[6]. MIT Election Data and Science Lab / Harvard Dataverse, Overview and Live Results: Chicago Mayoral Election, Legislative Special Elections, Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin Running for U.S. Senate, Initial 2024 House Ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. After all, it's only at the center of the political universetonight. 2020 Electoral Map Results. Updates about tonight's races in Pennsylvania. Also, theres a run off in Georgia so you may have two strikes incorrect. These maps give extra visual weight to larger areal units, whether by county or state. While I had less reporting on this, high turnout was also reported in the red parts of the state, too. But Pennsylvania is now red. This threshold varies by state and is based on patterns of past vote reporting and expectations about how the vote will report this year. Idaho solidifies its ranking as a top retirement state by offering many tax breaks for seniors. Electoral law in Maine and Nebraska makes it possible for those states to divide their electoral votes: winner-take-all both by congressional district and statewide. elections. Nov. 12, 2020, 11:00 AM UTC / . As of February 2023, California had the most mass shootings in the United States, with 25 total shootings since 1982. Nevertheless, both parties have adopted logos that use their respective colors i.e., a blue D for Democrats and a white GOP with a red elephant for Republicans. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee alluded to the color scheme when it launched a national Red to Blue Program in 2006. Mitchell Thorson, Kevin Crowe, Dian Zhang, and Dan Keemahill contributed to this report. Redistricting 2021: Red states, blue voters Elaine Kamarck Thursday, September 30, 2021 FixGov After a COVID-19-related delay in getting out the census data, states across the country are now. Support local journalism. For example, the major center-right conservative parties in the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Brazil, Italy, Spain and France all use blue or its shades (whether officially or unofficially) whereas the major socialist, communist, or social democratic parties in each country are associated with red. As of 2020, fully 35 out of 50 states in the U.S. have voted for the same party in every presidential election since the red-blue terminology was popularized in 2000. It is not a red state. Although the Electoral College determines the presidential election, a more precise measure of how the country actually voted may be better represented by either a county-by-county or a district-by-district map. Independent candidate Ralph Nader did not win any electoral votes, yet he received 2% of the vote of voters from high-income households and voters with graduate degrees. Out of. Here are the 10 states with the largest Democratic advantage: Wyoming - R+26 West Virginia - R+23 North Dakota - R+20 Oklahoma - R+20 Cash, Money, Green: How Will You Feel in Retirement? Sorry Marc. - Matter of Fact with Soledad O'Brien Perhaps no one is better at understanding Pennsylvania voters than former Governor Ed Rendell. These county-by-county and district-by-district maps reveal that the true nature of the divide is between urban areas and inner suburbs and rural and exurban areas. In the 2008 election, most voters in most rural counties voted for Republican John McCain. Hi everyone from D.C.! We identify swing states as. Biden's margin of victory was under 1% in Arizona, Georgia, and Wisconsin, and it was under 1.2% in Pennsylvania. Americas Colleges Have Become Progressive Liberal Rat Holes, Russia and the High Priesthood of the Neocon Synod, DeSantis Hits the Road for Law and Order Tour. Although many red states and blue states stay in the same category for long periods, they may also switch from blue to red or from red to blue over time. Tennessee. US Treasury Yield Curve: My Favorite Investor Tool, click here to sign up for my free weekly email, The Liberal Invasion of Red-State America, DRUGS, TRAFFICKING, MURDER: Americas Immigration Crisis Continues, Vermont Abandoned, Dairy Farm Economy Devastated. Be the first to know breaking news, delivered only when a big story is developing. Turn on desktop notifications for breaking stories about interest? Dane County is home to Madison, the second-largest city in Wisconsin. The look of a map can vary significantly depending on the classification choices. Learn about the meaning of these words and see a list of these states, as of the 2020 election. The use of the term Blue or Red has been expanded to differentiate between states being perceived as Liberal and those perceived as Conservative. In recent elections, there have been a dozen or more truly competitive battlegrounds which could result in many various paths to 270 electoral votes. Some maps attempt to account for this by using cartogram methods, but the resulting distortion can make such maps difficult to read. With all eyes on Georgia and the upcoming Senate runoffs slated for Jan. 5, 2021, Emory College Dean Michael A. Elliott hosted a panel discussion Dec. 2 examining Georgia's new swing-state status and future role in American politics from business, marketing . That solved the problem. By breaking the map down into smaller units (including many blue counties lying next to red counties), these maps tend to display many states with a purplish hue, thus demonstrating that an ostensibly blue or red state may, in fact, be closely divided. 44% of Americans in the South favored secession, with Republican support at 66%; while Democratic support was 47% in the Pacific states.[50][51][52]. [53] White, middle-aged, Christian, married males made up McCain's largest constituency. Overall, Pennsylvania is a blue state 49 percent of registered voters are Democrats, 37 percent are Republicans and 14 percent are independents or members of minor parties. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee also alluded the color scheme when it launched a national "Red to Blue Program" in 2006. This threshold varies by state and is based on patterns of past vote reporting and expectations about how the vote will report this year. I'm watching to see what happens in Pennsylvania, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin and the Upper Midwest states which seems to be the most crucial for a potential Trump victory given the recent polling and his path to winning in 2016.I'm also watching to see what emerges as the chief issue for voters: the economy (which historically has favored Trump), or his administration's handling of Covid (where he has been far weaker in the polls). In the 2008 elections, both parties received at least 40% from all sizable socioeconomic demographics, except that McCain (Republican) received 37% from voters earning $15,000$30,000, and 25% from voters earning under $15,000, according to exit polling. Counties are colored red or blue when the % expected vote reporting reaches a set threshold. They propose partition of the U.S. as a way of allowing both groups to achieve their policy goals while reducing the chances of civil war. I'm totally zeroed in on Pennsylvania tonight. Then again, Sen. Bob Casey told me he thought the race could potentially be called in Pennsylvania tonight. You have to beware with these reports, though. Some voters expressed concern about imposing constables, others reported feeling harassed. Taking Biden at face value about Michigan and Wisconsin where, for what it's worth (not that much), the exit poll data looks pretty good for him and he came in with a significant polling lead here's where the map goes: If Biden wins those two, plus Maine, Nevada and Arizona, but nothing else, he's at 269 electoral votes. How much does fracking register as an issue across the state in southeastern PA, in Philly and itssuburbs? Would Pennsylvania make a better early primary state. The vast majority of reported incidents involved concerns about unlawful electioneering or interference at polling sites. States losing seats included Illinois, Michigan,. The converse can also be true, as in the case of Maine, which had two Republican U.S. senators, but Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry won the state's electoral votes. Robert Vanderbei at Princeton University made the first Purple America map after the 2000 presidential election. State voted with the overall winning candidate. Tap or hover to see names. While all of these issues are concerning, none of them are too far out of the ordinary for issues that arise during any normal election year and this year was far from normal, with many expecting the worst in terms of potential disruptions and possibleconflict.". The key swing region is the. Further, all election maps are subject to the interpretation error known as the ecological fallacy. However, the combination of higher vote margins than Clinton in Tucson (Pima County) and Maricopa's flip from red to blue meant Biden still prevailed inthe state. If you would like to change your settings or withdraw consent at any time, the link to do so is in our privacy policy accessible from our home page.. The source defines a mass shooting as a shooting where three or more people. It is not a blue state or a red state. Regarding national politics, it is historically a "Red" state although in recent national elections it has gone"blue". Eight of the districts gave Trump 58% or higher. But Biden didn't get to 40% like the strategist wanted (and which Obama got beyondtwice). We and our partners use data for Personalised ads and content, ad and content measurement, audience insights and product development. The presidential primary contests are usually decided before Pennsylvania holds its primary, which is on Tuesday, April 26, this year. But the distinction between the two groups of states is less simplistic. The numbers are clear: in 2020, 57.97 percent of Washington voters chose Joe Biden, and only 38.77 percent chose Donald Trump. Telling tweet from election law expert Rick Hasen: "Biggest surprise of the election watch for me so far: Florida's election administration doesn't make my top 3 of places I'm worried about. 2023 Electoral Ventures LLC. All five of the aforementioned states were decided by 1% or less in the year (2016 or 2020) they came off this map. And when election results flowed in Tuesday night, Nov. 2, Studio 8-H at 30 Rockefeller Center lit up. But in western Pennsylvania, as well as the northeast, it's more popular and has led to a boom in some areas that have been struggling economically for a long time. With the election year underway, we put together a state map that lays out the political landscape, based on February voter registration figures from the Pennsylvania Department of State. Holly Trump's team really focused on Biden's fracking comments for the last couple weeks, convinced that they could make all the difference in Pennsylvania. by The Hill staff - 10/24/14 6:00 AM ET. If youre willing to fight for Main Street America, click here to sign up for my free weekly email. In 2020, the state with the highest crime rate in the United States per 100,000 inhabitants was New Mexico. While they may have voted for Biden in 2020, they did so by margins smaller than his. All three of those states were very close in both elections. Is Missouri a red state? The lack of clear classes make these purple maps prone to the problems of color perception described above. After the results were final with the Republican George W. Bush winning, journalists stuck with the color scheme, as The Atlantic's December 2001 cover story by David Brooks entitled, "One Nation, Slightly Divisible", illustrated. Dec. 10, 2020. Biden won by larger margins than Clinton in every county that voted for her except for Philadelphia, where he won by about 4,000 fewer votes than Democrats had in 2016. Democrats, including Biden's campaign, spent a ton of money educating voters about this rule to prevent that. Crime rate U.S. 2020, by state. *Counties are colored red or blue when the % expected vote reporting reaches a set threshold. Gov. In the 2000 election, Bush received a smaller share of the popular vote than Al Gore, and four years later defeated John Kerry by this count by less than two and a half percentage points. In fact, many of the Great Plains and Rocky Mountain states which voted for Bush are relatively sparsely populated (Nebraska, for instance, has a population similar to the island of Manhattan). Biden did so by rebuilding the "blue wall" of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, according to NBC News projections. Experts weigh in on swing-state status. To do so, he improved upon Clinton's margins in a range of both. Sen. Bob Casey and local Democratic Party leaders also said there was massive turnout in the Philadelphia suburbs, which would be a win for Biden. We are one people, all of us pledging allegiance to the Stars and Stripes, all of us defending the United States of America."[26]. If the U.S. followed such a pattern, blue would be used for the Republicans and red for the Democrats. Since the 1984 election, CBS has used the opposite scheme: blue for Democrats, red for Republicans. Charlie We haven't heard yet from Allegheny County, which is also a top source of Democratic votes. We worship an awesome God in the blue states, and we don't like federal agents poking around our libraries in the red states. One thing to keep in mind as we've seen Biden's polling numbers vanish in states like Florida and North Carolina: His leads were much larger in Michigan and Wisconsin, and a bit larger in Pennsylvania. Please help update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information. FiveThirtyEight's forecast currently expects these states to step slightly to the left in 2020, but there's a lot of uncertainty here, especially in a state like Maine where the error bars. But in 2016, although Hillary Clinton won Latino voters by roughly 30 points, turnout was remarkably . As such, a constitutional Republic form of government as the U.S. is (remember, America is not a democracy), could certainly be expected to vote for President Trump by an even wider gap in 2020. The political map of Pennsylvania is often described as a T with Republicans holding sway up the center of the state and across its northern tier, and Democrats strongest in the southeast and southwest. [34][35][36], In 1976, only 27 percent of U.S. voters lived in landslide counties, which increased to 39 percent by 1992. The "Democratic blue" and "Republican red" color scheme is now part of the lexicon of American journalism. [9] That same year, a color supplement included with a July issue of The Washington Post used red for Republican-favoring states, blue for Democratic-favoring states, yellow for "doubtful" states and green for territories that did not have a presidential vote.[10]. Three Michigan counties flipped from red to blue. Some maps use more classes, such as shades of red and blue to indicate the degree of election victory. Maps of this type are termed choropleth maps, which have several well-known problems that can result in interpretation bias. Secondly, I'm looking to see if we get a sense tonight of how many "naked ballots" there are in the state. National conventions for both major parties increasingly feature the parties' respective colors, from the colors emphasized on convention podiums to the color conventioneers can be seen wearing on the delegate floor. These are general election results for the years listed. Pennsylvania was one of the most closely watched states throughout the 2020 election. Turn on desktop notifications for breaking stories about interest? The map was placed in the network's election-night news studio. The blue states scored better two ways higher overall average rankings vs. red states (No. Press Enter to view state-level map. During the Bush administration, the red-blue map was criticized by some[31] for exaggerating the perceived support for President Bush. [3][4] However, the perception of some states as "blue" and some as "red" was reinforced by a degree of partisan stability from election to election from the 2000 election to the 2004 election, only three states changed "color"; and as of 2020, 35 out of 50 states have voted for the same party in every presidential election since the red-blue terminology was popularized in 2000, with only 15 having swung between the 2000 and 2020 election. During Election Day in 2016, Democrats reported good turnout in Philadelphia, and Clinton actually pulled out almost as many raw votes out of Philly as Obama in 2012. ", "Why the National Popular Vote Compact is Unconstitutional", "Why Blue States Should Exit Red America", "Majority of Trump Voters Want to Split the Nation Into 'Red' and 'Blue' Halves", "Majority of Trump voters believe it's 'time to split the country' in two, new poll finds", "Biden came in to unite, but poll shows US is now more divided than ever", "47% of West Coast Dems, 66% of Southern Republicans want to secede from U.S.", "Shocking poll finds many Americans now want to secede from the United States", "Still miles apart: Americans and the state of U.S. democracy half a year into the Biden presidency | Bright Line Watch", "How People of Faith Voted in the 2008 Presidential Race". Massachusetts is a blue state with a red governor making red states look worse on mortality. It delivered a big margin for Clinton in2016. Same for GA senate races Charlie. In the days after the 2000 election, the outcome of which was unknown for some time after election day, major media outlets began conforming to the same color scheme because the electoral map was continually in view, and conformity made for easy and instant viewer comprehension. A free app to create, analyze and share redistricting maps for any state. The Democratic states, comprising 242 electoral votes had all actually gone blue since 1992 - six straight elections. Biden won Daneand Milwaukee counties by far larger margins than Hillary Clinton, pushing him to victory in Wisconsin. If we just win one state between North Carolina and Georgia, then we could lose Michigan and Florida and still get over 270 electoralvotes.. Click here to learn more about the role the Lancaster County Local Journalism Fund plays in Lancaster County and to make a tax-deductible donation. [37][38] In 2020, 58 percent of U.S. voters lived in landslide counties. Trump's New Math: Inside the Plan to Flip Blue States in 2020. Pennsylvania's diversity is mostly on par with the rest of the nation. During the 2016 presidential election, two districts (the first and second) gave Clinton over 80% and 90% of the vote. The following list is tabled from the last Presidential Election 2020. The paradigm has been criticised on several fronts. These editorials note the increasingly polarized political strife in the U.S. between Republican voters and Democratic voters. Overview and Live Results: Chicago Mayoral Election, Legislative Special Elections, Michigan Rep. Elissa Slotkin Running for U.S. Senate, Initial 2024 House Ratings from Sabato's Crystal Ball. The county with the most lopsided voter registration margin is Philadelphia, which is 78 percent Democrat, 11 percent Republican and 11 percent other. Biden ended up securing a broad Electoral College victory, but only thanks to relatively small margins of victory in key swing states. Virginia has continued voting for the Democratic presidential nominees (as well as increasingly electing Democrats at the state level), leading to its being reclassified as a blue state in recent years. Both parties have since adopted logos that use their respective colors (a blue "D" for Democrats[56] and a red "GOP" for Republicans). In 2018, the governor's race was settled by just 55,000 votes. Idaho. The answer, of course, is yes they are both of those. Over the last decade, there has been a notable increase in Latinos' share of the overall population in Arizona, up from 25 to 31 percent since 2000. [33] The polarization has been present for only four close elections (2000, 2004, 2016, and 2020). [47][48][49] A different poll that same year grouped the United States into five geographic regions, and found that 37% of Americans favored secession of their own region.